The CTHULHU group's been
quiet so far this year, so I thought I'd let you all know about an
upcoming Palaeo group journal discussion session on Early Warning Signals I'm hosting that you may be interested in. It'll be (palaeo)climate focused but we'll be discussing the general theory of EWS and critical transitions too.
It's next Thursday 27th March at 11:30 in room 064/03, the blurb is attached below (along with the papers):
"This week we'll be discussing the emerging use of 'Early Warning Signals' (EWS) analysis in Palaeo and Modern climate datasets.
Detecting EWS in modern climate (and other environmental) data promises
to offer the ability to predict the approach of future tipping points.
This approach also offers the ability to test the presence of tipping
points hypothesised to have been passed during
various palaeoclimate events. However, the statistics involved are
complex and can be sensitive to parameter choices, and not all tipping
points might yield EWS. As the analysis of EWS and other tipping point
indicators becomes more common it is imperative
that palaeo researchers at least broadly understand their use and
limitations as hypothesised palaeoclimatic critical transitions are put
to the test.
We'll primarily be discussing the Dakos et al. (2008) PNAS article which
analyses several palaeo events and models, while two other slightly
longer reviews of the use of EWS in Palaeo & Modern climate studies
(Lenton, 2011) and across all fields (Scheffer et
al, 2009) are also provided for background reading."
Hope to see some of you there!
